2026 April 9 (Thu) 8:00 pm - 9:00 pm | (Zoom) | Zoom only

Shaping Trade Stability: WTO Rulings on Export Restrictions and Business Confidence in Supply Chains

Speaker: CHRISTINA L. DAVIS, Edwin O. Reischauer Professor of Japanese Politics, Department of Government; Director, Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, Harvard University

Discussant: GREGORY SCHAFFER, Scott K. Ginsburg Professor of International Law, Georgetown University Law Center

Discussant: IAIN OSGOOD, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Michigan

Chair: SAORI KATADA, Professor of International Relations, University of Southern California

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Abstract: An effective international legal system resolves disputes and deters violations. Once the strongest area of international law, the WTO has been weakened by internal conflicts, trade wars, and supply chain disruptions. This paper examines whether WTO rulings still bolster confidence in the rules-based trade order, focusing on business perceptions of supply chain stability. Using a 2022 survey experiment of Japanese firm managers, we assess how WTO rulings shape expectations about trade reliability. Respondents were randomly assigned to receive varying information regarding a WTO ruling that found China’s export restrictions on raw materials violated WTO rules, modeled on an actual case. We analyze how legal rulings and policy changes affect confidence in securing input supplies and compare perceptions of China’s supply chains versus other countries. Results show that learning about a WTO ruling against China lowers confidence in China’s supply chain reliability. However, further learning about China’s compliance with the ruling significantly restores confidence—more than similar policy changes without multilateral enforcement. These findings suggest that while highlighting violations may weaken trust, compliance strengthens confidence in global trade stability.

Japanese Politics Online Seminar Series (JPOSS) sponsored by the Program on US-Japan Relations